What employers need to know about the next phase of Australia’s migration squeeze
As at 27 August 2026
Employers who rely on international students, their partners, Working Holiday Makers (WHMs) and other temporary visa holders should prepare for another tightening of Australia’s migration settings.
The final package has not yet been announced, and some of the proposed changes may still move. But the direction is becoming increasingly clear: the Federal Government wants fewer temporary migrants remaining in Australia for extended periods, fewer opportunities to move from one temporary visa to another onshore, and a more predictable reduction in Net Overseas Migration (NOM).
For employers, that is likely to mean a smaller and less flexible pool of temporary labour, more uncertainty around visa renewals and onshore transitions, and a greater need to plan earlier for workers the business genuinely wants to retain.
What is reportedly coming?
A report in The Australian on 26 August says the Albanese government is finalising a package covering international students, visitor visas and onshore visa applications, with the measures expected to be combined into one major announcement. The reported proposals include restrictions on students lodging further applications from within Australia, limits on family members accompanying students, measures preventing students moving from higher education into lower-level VET courses, and further action against so-called “visa hopping”.
The same report says the government is considering reducing the validity of the Electronic Travel Authority (subclass 601) and eVisitor (subclass 651) from 12 months to six months from November, subject to exceptions for bilateral and other sensitivities.
Importantly, this should not be confused with allowing tourists to stay for six months or to work. At present, an ETA or eVisitor is generally valid for travel for 12 months, with stays of up to three months on each entry, and neither is a work visa. The employer impact of the visitor changes is, therefore, mostly indirect: reducing the ability of people to remain in Australia for long periods while looking for another visa pathway and potentially narrowing the pool of people already in Australia who can transition onto another status.
Students: the issue may be retention, not work hours
There has been no reported proposal at this stage to further reduce the existing student work limitation. Student visa holders are currently generally permitted to work 48 hours per fortnight while their course is in session, with different arrangements applying in some postgraduate research circumstances. Employers remain responsible for ensuring the employee works within the conditions applying to their particular visa.
The bigger issue for employers may be what happens when the student’s current visa approaches expiry.
The proposed reforms reportedly focus on reducing repeat onshore student applications, preventing inappropriate course downgrading and restricting some family-member pathways. That could mean an employee who previously expected to enrol in another course and remain in Australia may no longer have that option.
Employers should also remember that student dependants form part of the workforce. Depending on the principal student’s course, some family members currently have substantial or unrestricted work rights. A tightening of the ability of students to bring partners and dependants, therefore, potentially affects more workers than simply the students themselves.
WHMs: some of the crackdown has already started
For employers in tourism, hospitality, agriculture and other industries which use backpacker labour, this is not purely a future issue.
The government has already confirmed that Working Holiday Maker processing is occurring more slowly. On 26 August, Tony Burke said processing across the backpacker programme was being managed differently while the government considers broader migration reforms.
ABC reporting also confirmed that applications involving 24 countries under the Work and Holiday arrangements had been paused, while Home Affairs currently warns that it is receiving a high volume of subclass 417 and 462 applications and that applications will take longer than usual to finalise.
Current WHM holders can generally work for an employer for up to six months under condition 8547, although exemptions presently apply in areas including agriculture, food processing, health, aged and disability care, childcare, tourism and hospitality, among others.
The risk for employers is therefore not necessarily that existing WHM employees suddenly lose their work rights. It is that the replacement pipeline slows down and future cohorts become harder or slower to recruit.
Why now? Follow the NOM number
The key to understanding the current policy direction is that the political debate has shifted away from the permanent migration programme and towards Net Overseas Migration.
NOM peaked at around 538,000 in 2022–23 after the post-COVID reopening. It has since fallen substantially. The ABS recorded NOM of about 306,000 in 2024–25, and the latest population data put annual NOM at approximately 301,000 to December 2025.
The May 2026 budget forecasts NOM falling further: 295,000 in 2025–26, 245,000 in 2026–27 and 225,000 in 2027–28.
That last number — 225,000 in 2027–28 — matters politically.
The next normal simultaneous House and half-Senate election can be held from August 2027 and, on the usual timetable, must effectively occur by May 2028. An early-2028 election is therefore a reasonable working assumption and would put the campaign roughly 18 months away.
That means the government will want the migration numbers heading unmistakably in the right direction as the election approaches.
The Australian reports that Cabinet is considering quarterly updates assessing whether individual measures are actually reducing NOM and what economic or international consequences those measures are producing.
That makes NOM not simply a Treasury forecast but increasingly a political performance measure.
The rise of One Nation is plainly part of the political environment. Prime Minister Albanese himself acknowledged on 27 August that there is currently a spike in One Nation support, although he argues the government began lowering migration well before that rise occurred. Recent polling has at times placed One Nation in the mid-20s and ahead of the Coalition on primary support, creating obvious pressure on both major parties over migration.
Our assessment is therefore that the government will be highly motivated to arrive at the next election able to point to a simple headline: "Net migration is down and we met our target.”
That is political analysis rather than an announced government objective, but the timing of the measures, the budget forecasts and the reported cabinet monitoring of NOM make the strategy difficult to ignore.
Burke’s aborted National Press Club announcement is also revealing
Home Affairs Minister Tony Burke had been scheduled to use a National Press Club appearance in early August to unveil major migration changes.
He pulled out shortly beforehand.
The ABC reported that the speech was postponed because key elements had not been finalised and that some of the proposals were contentious within government. Subsequent reporting indicated the package had been through Cabinet several times, with unresolved issues involving backpackers, family migration and other temporary visa settings.
That does not mean the crackdown disappeared. If anything, subsequent developments suggest the opposite.
Burke said again on 26 August that the government is working to the NOM numbers contained in the budget and that broader migration reforms will be announced once Cabinet is ready. The Australian now reports that the Prime Minister wants the measures brought together as one major package.
As of 27 August, however, the government has still not confirmed a firm announcement date. SBS reported today that Albanese declined to provide one, saying further work remains to be done.
What should employers do now?
Audit your temporary visa workforce.
Identify employees on student, student dependant, WHM and bridging visas, and record their visa expiry dates and current conditions. Do not rely simply on what the employee believes their work rights to be — use VEVO. Home Affairs specifically provides VEVO for employers to check whether a visa holder has unlimited, limited or no work rights.
Identify the workers you cannot afford to lose.
If someone is genuinely important to the business, do not assume another student or WHM visa will necessarily provide the next 12 or 24 months. Where appropriate, employers should assess a formal sponsored pathway earlier rather than waiting until the existing visa is close to expiry. The Skills in Demand subclass 482 remains one potential employer-sponsored option where the employer, position and employee satisfy the requirements.
Build more lead time into recruitment.
This is particularly important for businesses that recruit WHMs offshore or depend on large intakes of casual international workers. The existing processing slowdown means the effect is already being felt before any new legislation or regulations commence.
Do not assume “visa hopping” will remain available.
An employee who says they will simply enrol in another course or apply for another temporary visa in Australia may find that pathway restricted by the time their existing visa expires.
Do not act on the newspaper headlines alone.
Most of the student and visitor measures discussed above remain proposals. Existing visa holders retain the conditions applying to their current visas unless and until the law, regulations, visa conditions or relevant policy settings actually change.
The bottom line for employers
This is unlikely to be a blanket shutdown of student workers, tourists or backpackers.
It is better understood as the next stage in a deliberate effort to reduce the number of temporary residents who remain in Australia for extended periods and to make the NOM number more controllable.
For employers, the consequences are likely to appear as reduced labour supply, slower recruitment, greater employee turnover and fewer easy onshore pathways for temporary workers who want to stay.
And unlike some previous migration reforms, this one is occurring against a very clear political timetable.
With the government targeting NOM of 225,000 by 2027–28, the next federal election approaching, and migration becoming an increasingly important point of competition with One Nation and the Coalition, employers should expect temporary migration settings to remain under downward pressure from here through to the election.
The businesses best placed to manage that environment will be those that identify their critical temporary visa workers early, understand exactly what visa options are available to them, and stop treating the next student or backpacker visa as an automatic workforce-retention strategy.
This article is general information only and reflects publicly available information and media reporting as at 27 August 2026. Several of the measures discussed have not yet been formally announced or implemented and may change.
