The current GSM landscape is becoming tighter, not looser. Home Affairs’ state and territory nomination allocations page shows that the total 2025–26 allocation is 20,350 places across subclasses 190 and 491.
The allocations running low is directionally consistent with what at least one jurisdiction has now said publicly. On 13 March 2026, Migration Tasmania stated that, as the program approached the final quarter of 2025–26, the invitations already issued would use most of this year’s allocation, that there were only some remaining places, and that the number of new invitations would be limited over the coming weeks. Tasmania also paused some subclass 190 invitations and said subclass 491 invitations would continue in reduced numbers.
So while I have not found a public Home Affairs page stating in those exact words that there will be no third-quarter allocation and only a limited fourth quarter likely in June 2026, the public position is clearly moving in that direction: allocations are tight, some jurisdictions are already slowing invitations, and candidates should not assume there will be a normal volume of invitations before 30 June 2026.
The safest way to express this is: the program year appears to be entering a very constrained final phase. Applicants should not wait passively for another round if their EOI can be improved, if state nomination alternatives exist, or if supporting documents need updating. A limited end-of-year invitation round remains possible, but it should be treated as uncertain until formally confirmed.
